EV Mandates Are Wobbling—And Dealers Are the Shock Absorbers

Back in 2022, when federal governments on both sides of the border committed to aggressive EV sales mandates, the energy was electric—literally. Automakers pledged billions. Rebate programs launched. And dealers were told: get ready or get left behind.

But today, that momentum is losing steam fast.

In Canada, the federal requirement that 20% of new light-duty vehicle sales be zero-emission by 2026 is under serious scrutiny. April’s EV share plummeted to just 7.5%, down from a peak of 18.3%. The biggest culprit? The iZEV rebate quietly expired, gutting the price advantage that had been driving consumer interest.

Now, automakers are telling Ottawa the mandate is “unrealistic.” And the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association estimates that 180,000 additional EVs would need to sell in 2026 just to meet compliance. That’s not a stretch goal—it’s a cliff. And the burden won’t fall on policy-makers. It’ll fall on dealers.

For Canadian Dealers, the Strain Is Already Here

You’re already seeing the consequences:

• OEM pressure to stock EVs, even in regions with no charging infrastructure

• Longer turn times and more incentive stacking to get buyers over the line

• Confused customers—asking whether EV rebates are still active, whether it’s worth the switch, or whether they should just wait

The reality is this: while mandates shape headlines, demand shapes your day-to-day. And right now, the gap between the two is widening.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., Reality Is Catching Up Fast

If you’re watching the U.S. market as a bellwether, the signs are clear.

Despite high-profile tax credits and federal EV investments, dealers in the U.S. are reporting ballooning EV inventory and buyer hesitation. Tesla’s market share is slipping. Ford and GM have quietly scaled back EV production plans for 2025 and beyond. And frontline sales teams are saying the quiet part out loud: we can’t push what people don’t want.

The Inflation Reduction Act brought hope, but not enough infrastructure or buyer education followed. And when EVs start gathering dust on the lot, excitement turns to skepticism.

So What Now?

Whether you’re running a rooftop in Mississauga or Michigan, the lesson is the same: policy isn’t a plan, and incentives don’t last forever.

For most dealers, the smartest move isn’t doubling down on EV hype. It’s rebalancing:

• Audit your local buyer appetite: Urban markets may still support EV growth. Rural? Probably not yet.

• Re-educate your team: The EV pitch has to shift from “save the planet” to “save at the pump, own for less, and qualify for real incentives.”

• Watch the rebate landscape: Programs will likely return in modified form, being ready early gives you an edge.

• Keep your voice in the room: The next phase of EV growth will be dictated by OEMs, governments, and associations. Don’t let it happen to you, shape it.
  
  

Bottom Line

The EV transformation isn’t dead—but it is being delayed.

And the ones holding the bag during the slowdown? Dealers. That’s why it’s critical to look past the headlines and build a strategy rooted in what’s actually moving on your lot, not what’s moving through Ottawa or D.C.

TL;DR

EV targets are falling short in both Canada and the U.S. Consumers aren’t ready, incentives are inconsistent, and automakers are quietly backing off aggressive rollouts. That leaves dealers squeezed between policy pressure and local reality.